Ed Moya – Currencies In Focus; USD Stronger, Japanese Yen Struggling and China’s Real Estate Issue Continue
Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA joins us to focus on the currency markets while tying in China’s struggling real estate market and the Bank of Japan’s adjustment to its yield curve control. While currencies are a global comparison game the fact that almost every economy is still dealing with persistently higher inflation. We also focus on the main drivers for inflation and if we will have inflation stuck above the Fed’s target 2% target level.
Hi there Glenfidish. I don’t know about any 8-year cycle , but do like the point that Dave Erfle has made a number of times on our show about the 7-year cycle where Gold bottomed in 2001, then 2008, then 2015, and then again last year in 2022.
The key technical data on that false breakdown last year below key $1675 support to triple bottom around $1620, was a large bear-trap where things could have gotten ugly (like they did back in 2013 when key support gave way) but they didn’t, and the PMs quickly reversed back higher again squeezing all the overzealous shorts.
Based on the technical evidence at hand, then it seems most probable that the 7-year cycle held once again from 2015 to 2022 for the next low. At this point we’ve seen the worst of any corrective move lower last fall, and the PMs have already entered a new bull market in Silver and the mining stocks as of last September, and Gold as of last November.
It’s easy to observe the 7-year cycle lows from 2001 forward…
I’ve never personally heard about a 7 year cycle myself text book wise. I’ve always learned of it to be an 8 year cycle that does not mean the 8 year cycle lines up 100% and this is we’re you might be getting confused.
Many technicians are referring to the cycles being shortened and so that I can understand.
As with most market cycles, gold’s 8-year cycle is measured bottom-to-bottom. But there is more to it than just that 8-year period between major bottoms. It typically sees a 3-year upward phase, which is where most of the big gains are seen. Then the 5-year downward phase actually has a 3-wave process of going down.
Also take note gold bottomed in 1999 not 2001 from a price action bottom monthly candle of $255. But even if we take the 2001 February low to the 0ctober 2008 low we have a 7 year 8 month period. The next assumed cycle we have is the 2008 to 2015 a 7 year plus. Then November/december 2015 period to what we assume is a September 2022 bottom and that’s shy of 7 years give or take.
The following are bottom to bottom 8 year cycles. Some of these have been shortened or have had to been adjusted due to many factors and government Interventions. The last cycle being a very short one less than 7 years having technically bottomed in November/ December of 2015 only satisfys 6 years 10/11 months if it holds true that September 2022 was the low. That is why you can’t be 100% sure the 8 year cycle low is in. For the record I do believe it’s in and has been a shortened cycle.
1976-1984
1984-1992
1992-2000
2000-2008
2008-2016
2016-2024
Peter goodburn, Gary savage, charles nenner and others I have followed throughout the years have made reference to the 8 year cycles.
Whatever the cycles are know as the last three has been 7 to 7.5 years. You listed 2000-2008 but there was no low in 2000. You have to choose either 1999 (253.20) or the close retest in 2001(255.80). I chose the latter because it wrapped up the 2 year bottoming process for that secular low. The next low in 2008 was 90 months later. That’s 7.5 years. The low that you called the 2016 low happened in December 2015 and came 86 months after the 2008 low. That just 7 tears, 2 months. Last year’s low was 83 months after that which is just 1 month shy of 7 years. Here’s a picture if you missed it a few days ago:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38994509920&a=712970417&r=1692064781662&cmd=print
Matthew
I mentioned from a technical factual point of view gold bottomed in 1999 at 255 and change for the purchase of bullion itself that was the low. I agree that the 2001 point or reflection low is the start of the 8 year cycle or how I would look at it as well. I also did not say above that 2016 was a low I said 2015 November/December was the low. I don’t disagree with anything else. I think my point was that you don’t really 8 year perfect cycles to the day. Nice chart by the way 😉
Not sure about you but I like my targets I mentioned yesterday as a possible low. $1865 ish.. but you just never know we’re she will stop and reverse with volume.
Regarding 2000 and 2016 I was referring to the years/cycles you listed in this format:
1976-1984
1984-1992
1992-2000
2000-2008
2008-2016
2016-2024
Yes it was more of a proxy which was used from someone else’s work. It’s off more in line with what you said. By the way any news on Scorpio gold or did I miss something?
Confusion
Thar she blows!?….If miners get a key reversal candle today…Game is on…glta
Economic weakness w rising inflation…Welcome to the new world, the new world…
“AI concerned about their futures, sign petitions to Wall Street to support more copper mine development” (humor)
DAY GDX…..all the intra-day oscillators are oversold…….the day chart is waiting for them to snap positive…the daily and weekly oscillators are pretty close to symmetric…so the next day buy signal will rapidly cause the weekly the same…getting good and close…glts
OK … dollar down, general markets down, metals down. Conclusion: anything that happens is the metals fault.
Inflation is jumping again in Canada, look for more rate hikes, the real inflation rate is much higher than Stats Canada acknowledges, the sheeple are getting squeezed hard and they don’t know why? DT
GLD is within 1.6% of filling its big weekly March gap and it will have fork and 50 week MA support when it gets there.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p49545348402&a=1477865741
This is day 6 of SLV’s slide down fork support toward its 11.5 month uptrend support…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76924327963&a=1474959084
GDX is in its March breakaway gap…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=11&id=p30036077275&a=1480753633
The problem is not with gold and its not going to a new low anytime soon. It’s with the underlying equities which continue their underperformance as has been the case for months and in most cases the past couple of years. And where most of the bag holders have placed their bets hoping that each successive low was the last one, and to be bought.
Judging by the dry up of any interest and postings on this site the realization has set in that at best they will sit with dead money for a very long time and more likely will never recover.
So much for the hyped August event of a gold backed currency replacement with the Russians, Chinese etc for the US dollar by the gold bug pundits. Well the time has arrived and the same pundits will come up with alternative BS.
The sector equities will have their pop and it will be evident in the price action, in particular overperformance relative to gold. Until then why bother.
Cali and Matthew,
Want to be more clear from my previous post.
Look for the hidden pivot or area that is $1864-$1866 gap! It has been a long time target of Glen 🙂
Also keep in mind my good friends in here that the 8 year cycle in gold is due in 2024 so we better and I mean better get her going quick or we are dropping into that nasty 8 year cycle! Which one gives?
I will tell you at another date… cheers to all
Glen
What I meant to say was that we had what I also believe to be a shortened 8 year cycle low in September 2022. Im on par with that, however I was staying that we need to get her going fairly quickly sooner rather then later. My targets remain those above numbers however $1885 give or take can also satisfy.
Im fairly certain se break out to new highs more around Octoberish possibly September with goog luck charm.
Now if we do break plenty a lower then I would begin to think the markets take us down initially and I would really hope for the sake of all of us that does not happen because then that 8 year cycle low was prematurely called.
For the record I’m in the bullish camp still believe we break much higher I to year end.
Best of luck to all